Are Houses Less Affordable Than They Were in Past Decades?
Appfolio Websites • August 26, 2021
Are Houses Less Affordable Than They Were in Past Decades?
There are many headlines about how housing affordability is declining. The headlines are correct: it’s less affordable to purchase a home today than it was a year ago. However, it’s important to give this trend context. Is it less expensive to buy a house today than it was in 2005? What about 1995? What happens if we go all the way back to 1985? Or even 1975?
Obviously, the price of a home has appreciated dramatically over the last 45 years. So have the prices of milk, bread, and just about every other consumable. Prices rise over time – we know it as inflation.
However, when we look at housing, price is just one component that makes up the monthly cost of the home. Another key factor is the mortgage rate at the time of purchase.
Let’s look back at the cost of a home over the last five decades and adjust it for inflation by converting that cost to 2021 dollars. Here’s the methodology for each data point of the table below:
- Mortgage Amount: Take the median sales price at the end of the second quarter of each year as reported by the Fed and assume that the buyer made a 10% down payment.
- Mortgage Rate: Look at the monthly 30-year fixed rate for June of that year as reported by Freddie Mac.
- P&I: Use a mortgage calculator to determine the monthly principal and interest on the loan.
- In 2021 Dollars: Use an inflation calculator to determine what each payment would be when adjusted for inflation. Green means the homes were less expensive than today. Red means they were more expensive.
As the chart shows, when adjusted for inflation, there were only two times in the last 45 years that it was less expensive to own a home than it is today.
- Last year: Prices saw strong appreciation over the last year and mortgage rates have remained relatively flat. Therefore, affordability weakened.
- 2010: Home values plummeted after the housing crash 15 years ago. One-third of all sales were distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales). They sold at major discounts and negatively impacted the value of surrounding homes – of course homes were more affordable then.
At every other point, even in 1975, it was more expensive to buy a home than it is today.
Bottom Line
If you want to buy a home, don’t let the headlines about affordability discourage you. You can’t get the deal your friend got last year, but you will get a better deal than your parents did 20 years ago and your grandparents did 40 years ago.
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What Buyers Say They Need Most (And How the Market’s Responding) A recent survey from Bank of America asked would-be homebuyers what would help them feel better about making a move, and it’s no surprise the answers have a clear theme. They want affordability to improve, specifically prices and rates (see below): Here’s the good news. While the broader economy may still feel uncertain, there are signs the housing market is showing some changes in both of those areas. Let’s break it down so you know what you’re working with. Prices Are Moderating Over the past few years, home prices climbed fast, sometimes so fast it left many buyers feeling shut out. But today, that pace has slowed down. For comparison, from 2020 to 2021, prices rose by 20% in a 12-month period. Now? Nationally, experts are projecting single-digit increases this year – a much more normal pace. That's a sharp contrast to the rapid growth we saw just a few short years ago. Just remember, price trends are going to vary by area. In some markets, prices will continue to rise while others will experience slight declines . Prices aren’t crashing, but they are moderating. For buyers, the slowdown makes buying a home a bit less intimidating. It’s easier to plan your budget when home values are moving at a much slower pace. Mortgage Rates Are Easing At the same time, rates have come down from their recent highs. And that’s taken some pressure off would-be homebuyers. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says: “Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market. ” Even a small drop in mortgage rates can mean a big difference in what you pay each month in your future mortgage payment. Just remember, while rates have come down a bit lately, they’re going to experience some volatility. So don’t get too caught up in the ups and downs. The overall trend in the year ahead is that rates are expected to stay in the low to mid-6s – which is a lot better than where they were just a few short months ago. They may even drop further, depending on where the economy goes from here. Why This Matters Confidence in the economy may be low, but the housing market is showing signs of adjustment. Prices are moderating, and rates have come down from their highs. For you, that may not solve affordability challenges altogether, but it does mean conditions look a little different than they did earlier this year. And those shifts could help you re-engage as we move into next year. Bottom Line Both of the top concerns for buyers are seeing some movement. Prices are moderating. Rates are easing. And both trends could stick around going into 2026. If you’re considering a move, let’s connect walk you through what’s happening in our area – and what it means for your plans.
Closing Costs Unpacked: State-by-State Breakdowns for Today’s Buyers If you’re planning to buy a home this year, there’s one expense you can’t afford to overlook: closing costs . Almost every buyer knows they exist, but not that many know exactly what they cover, or how different they can be based on where you're buying. So, let’s break them down. What Are Closing Costs? Your closing costs are the additional fees and payments you make when finalizing your home purchase. Every buyer has them. According to Freddie Mac, they typically include things like homeowner insurance and title insurance, as well as various fees for your: Loan application Credit report Loan origination Home appraisal Home inspection Property survey Attorney National vs. Local: Why the Numbers Look So Different When you search for information about closing costs online, you’ll often see a national range, usually 2% to 5% of the home’s purchase price. While that’s a useful starting point if you’re working on your homebuying budget, it doesn’t tell the whole story. In reality, your closing costs will also vary based on: Taxes and fees where you live (like transfer taxes and recording fees) Service costs for things like title and attorney work in your local area While the home price is obviously going to matter, state laws, tax rates, and even the going costs for title and attorney services can change what you expect to pay. That’s why it's important to talk to the pros ahead of time so you know what to budget for. It can put you in control before you even start shopping. To give you a rough ballpark, here’s a state-by-state look at typical closing costs right now based on those factors for the median-priced home in each state (see map below): As the map shows, in some states, typical closing costs are just roughly $1-3K. In a few places, they can be closer to $10-15K. That’s a big swing, especially if you’re buying your first home. And that’s why knowing what to expect matters. If you want a real number to help with your budget, your best bet is to talk to a local agent and a lender. They can run the math for your price range, loan type, and exact location. And just in case you’re looking at your state’s number and wondering if there’s any way to trim that bill, NerdWallet shares a few strategies that can help: Negotiate with the seller . Ask for concessions like a credit toward your closing costs. Shop around for homeowner’s insurance . Compare coverage and rates before you commit. Check for assistance programs . Some states, professions, and neighborhoods offer help. Your agent and lender can point you to what’s available locally. Bottom Line Closing costs are a key part of buying a home, but they can vary more than most people realize. Knowing your numbers (and how to potentially bring them down) can go a long way and help you feel confident about your purchase. Let’s look at typical closing costs in our area and get you a personalized estimate, so you can craft your ideal budget.
Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year You want mortgage rates to fall – and they've started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go? Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here's why. The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield , which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below): When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down. It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points. The Spread Is Shrinking Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years. But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below): And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains: “A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.” The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year. This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year. Here's how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below): But remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way. How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction. Bottom Line Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you. If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, let's connect so you have someone to keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.
