Recent Data Suggests You Shouldn’t Spend Another Dime on Home Improvements Before Speaking With a Local Real Estate Agent
Lighter Side of Real Estate • June 14, 2023
If you do renovations or home improvements to your house, common sense says that doing so would raise the value, right?
The good news is that they do increase the value of your house!
The not-so-great news is that the amount your home goes up in value probably won’t be as much as you even spent on the project…
In fact, as CNBC recently reported, according to the 2023 Cost vs. Value Report, only 4 home improvement projects produce a positive return-on-investment. And if that’s not surprising enough, they probably aren’t even ones you’d think would make the list! The current projects that will net you the most profit when you sell your house are:
- Switching out a traditional furnace to a heat pump. That’ll put an extra $619 in your pocket based upon national averages.Replacing your garage door. That will add $116 to your bank account.
- Replace your siding with a stone veneer. Add $192 to your balance sheet.
- Change out your front door with a new steel door. Treat yourself to some lunch with the $21 you’ll recoup.
If you combined all four of those exact home improvement projects, you can expect to net a whopping $948!
The big, sexy projects most people think about doing to improve value — like a full-blown renovation of an existing bathroom or kitchen — will certainly add value, but they won’t increase the value as much as they cost to do. Those types of projects recoup less than 50% of what they cost a homeowner.
That said, those are based upon national data and averages. Here’s a link to the data CNBC cited in their article, which allows you to choose your specific area to get a better idea for how much you can expect to recoup on a project where you live. But the general gist is always the same: Very few projects will produce a positive return, regardless of where you live. And when they do, it’s rarely all that much of a return.
Should You Even Update or Renovate Your House at All?!
Once the initial shock wears off, the next question most homeowners have is whether they should waste any time or money on improving their house at all. But before you decide to never spend another cent or minute of your time on your house, here are a few things to consider:
- Updates and renovations will make your house more attractive and appealing to potential homebuyers.
- An outdated house (or one in need of repairs) can bring your value down. You need to maintain your house to about the level of other homes in the area, if you want to fetch a similar price to other recently sold homes.
- If your home isn’t updated, it can take a longer time to sell, or not sell at all, if it’s a slow market.
So you still need to make sure you’re keeping your house in good shape, and improving it over the years, if you want your house to sell readily and for as much as possible.
Things to Do and Keep In Mind if You Renovate
In order to maximize the money you spend on home improvements, here are a few key things you should do:
- Speak to a local real estate agent before doing any projects. Basing your decision upon national (or even regional) data can be misleading and inaccurate. Just because a particular type of project tends to produce a better return, and another does not in most areas, that might not be the case in your specific price range and market. A local agent will be able to help you assess whether or not a project will improve the value of your home enough to make it worth the investment.
- Don’t underestimate the value of your enjoyment. While a project may not produce a positive financial return, that doesn’t mean it won’t give you great satisfaction and enjoyment. There’s nothing saying you have to make money on the projects and home improvements you do, so long as you know what to expect ahead of time and aren’t surprised when you decide to sell.
- Be frugal and thoughtful about what you spend on improvements. New and updated is better even if it isn’t the highest end finishes or materials. Unless you’re in the luxury market, you can probably get away with doing lower-grade upgrades if you’re concerned about making as much of your money back as possible.
- Keep it neutral and universal. If you’re concerned about recouping as much money as possible, try to do projects and updates that will appeal to almost every buyer by keeping them neutral in style and color.
The Takeaway:
Many homeowners are surprised that their home renovations and improvements don’t increase the value of their home as much as they hoped, or even as much as they cost to do, when they decide to sell their house. But the reality is, very few projects produce a positive return-on-investment, and it isn’t very much of a return when they do.
If you want to maximize your ROI on home improvements, make sure to speak with a local real estate agent to help you assess whether a project makes sense before you spend time and money on it.
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2026 Housing Market Outlook After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same. More Homes Will Sell With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below): What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year. Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates . And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease. The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below): There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process. Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don't let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s. And remember, there doesn't have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line. If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers. Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down. So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago. Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below): This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight. Bottom Line After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market. So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year? Let’s connect if you want to get ready.
Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward. In most places, prices aren’t flat at all. What the Data Really Shows While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they've changed is going to be different everywhere. If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below). The big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are. One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains : “ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight .” When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that. And just in case you're really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward. So, what's actually important for you to know? If You’re Buying... You need to know what's happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do. In a market where prices are still inching up , waiting around could mean paying more down the line. In a market where they’re easing , you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal. The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat. If You’re Selling... You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate. In a market where prices are still rising , you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold. But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down , setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important. The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling. The Real Story Is Local The national averages can point to broad trends, and that's helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it: “While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented… This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway. ” That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market. They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move. Bottom Line Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture. Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what we’re seeing right here, right now? If you want the real story about what prices are doing in our market, let’s connect.
What Buyers Say They Need Most (And How the Market’s Responding) A recent survey from Bank of America asked would-be homebuyers what would help them feel better about making a move, and it’s no surprise the answers have a clear theme. They want affordability to improve, specifically prices and rates (see below): Here’s the good news. While the broader economy may still feel uncertain, there are signs the housing market is showing some changes in both of those areas. Let’s break it down so you know what you’re working with. Prices Are Moderating Over the past few years, home prices climbed fast, sometimes so fast it left many buyers feeling shut out. But today, that pace has slowed down. For comparison, from 2020 to 2021, prices rose by 20% in a 12-month period. Now? Nationally, experts are projecting single-digit increases this year – a much more normal pace. That's a sharp contrast to the rapid growth we saw just a few short years ago. Just remember, price trends are going to vary by area. In some markets, prices will continue to rise while others will experience slight declines . Prices aren’t crashing, but they are moderating. For buyers, the slowdown makes buying a home a bit less intimidating. It’s easier to plan your budget when home values are moving at a much slower pace. Mortgage Rates Are Easing At the same time, rates have come down from their recent highs. And that’s taken some pressure off would-be homebuyers. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says: “Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market. ” Even a small drop in mortgage rates can mean a big difference in what you pay each month in your future mortgage payment. Just remember, while rates have come down a bit lately, they’re going to experience some volatility. So don’t get too caught up in the ups and downs. The overall trend in the year ahead is that rates are expected to stay in the low to mid-6s – which is a lot better than where they were just a few short months ago. They may even drop further, depending on where the economy goes from here. Why This Matters Confidence in the economy may be low, but the housing market is showing signs of adjustment. Prices are moderating, and rates have come down from their highs. For you, that may not solve affordability challenges altogether, but it does mean conditions look a little different than they did earlier this year. And those shifts could help you re-engage as we move into next year. Bottom Line Both of the top concerns for buyers are seeing some movement. Prices are moderating. Rates are easing. And both trends could stick around going into 2026. If you’re considering a move, let’s connect walk you through what’s happening in our area – and what it means for your plans.
