Why You Can’t Compare Now to the ‘Unicorn’ Years of the Housing Market [INFOGRAPHIC]
KCM • June 19, 2023
Why You Can’t Compare Now to the ‘Unicorn’ Years of the Housing Market [INFOGRAPHIC]
Some Highlights
- Comparing housing market metrics from one year to another can be challenging in a normal housing market – and the last few years have been anything but normal. In a way, they were ‘unicorn’ years.
- Expect unsettling housing market headlines this year, mostly due to unfair comparisons with the ‘unicorn’ years.
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Home Price Growth Slowed Down. That May Be Changing. After more than a year of headlines talking about how home prices are going to crash , the latest data shows that price growth may be starting to pick back up again. And depending on whether you’re buying or selling, that shift means something different for you. The Numbers May Be Starting To Turn For the past couple of years, home price growth has been moderating – cooling from around 7% in mid-2024, according to Redfin (see graph below). But look at the right side of that graph. The pace of that growth appears to have hit its low point and started to turn. While a couple months of data doesn’t necessarily mean this will be a lasting trend, there are some other signs that this could continue. For example, fewer markets are seeing prices decline. According to ResiClub and Zillow, about 36% of the 300 largest housing markets had falling prices as of the middle of last year. Since the start of this year, that share has been shrinking. Now? Only 23% are experiencing those mild dips (see graph below): When fewer markets see prices falling, that means more markets are seeing prices rise again. And forecasts suggest this shift has room to run. On average, experts project home prices will rise about 2.3% nationally this year. And for that to happen, price growth would have to pick up a bit in the second half of 2026. But Remember, Real Estate Is Local While it looks like national prices may be starting to pick back up a tiny bit, that doesn’t mean that’s what’s happening in your neighborhood. National home prices are really just an average of hundreds of local markets. Some are climbing faster. Others are still cooling. But one reason the national average may be looking up is because a growing number of metros may actually be net positive for prices this year. Not long ago, the major metros were split about 50/50 – half seeing prices rise and half seeing them fall. Now, that balance looks like it’s starting to tip in a more positive direction. Just last month, more than half of the major metros saw prices go up, according to Redfin (see graph below): As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, explains : “. . . local markets continue to tell very different stories. Annual home price growth has changed little since the start of the year, but some markets, especially those supported by strong job and income growth in the West and more affordable Midwest markets, have seen notable acceleration in price gains.” What This Means for You Home price headlines can be confusing because they don’t always tell the full picture. Lean on an agent to understand what’s happening in your local market and what the early signs say for where prices may go from here. That’s the best way to stay one step ahead of the market. If you're buying: slower price growth has worked in your favor. You've had more room to negotiate and a budget you could plan around. If price growth is picking up in your area, buying now may mean paying less than you would later this year. If you own a home: you've been gaining equity all along, even while growth moderated. If growth keeps picking up, those gains could speed up, too. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), projects the typical homeowner will gain roughly $16,000 in housing wealth this year. And if you're thinking about selling, this shift is a good early sign for you. Just remember, the market is still pretty balanced and buyer-friendly in a lot of areas right now. Home price growth slowed way down, and now it's showing early signs of picking back up. Whether you're buying or selling, let's connect so you can see exactly what prices are doing in our local market and what that means for your plans. Bottom Line Home price growth slowed way down, and now it's showing early signs of picking back up. Whether you're buying or selling, let's connect so you can see exactly what prices are doing in our local market and what that means for your plans.
Here’s Why Mortgage Rates Are What They Are Right Now If you're waiting for mortgage rates to fall a lot before you buy, you may be waiting a while. But before you get discouraged, there's a number working behind the scenes that's actually good for you right now. It's called the spread, and once you understand it, you may see today’s rates in a whole new light. The Pattern That’s Held for 50+ Years For starters, mortgage rates don't move on their own. They tend to follow the 10-year treasury yield, a number tied to how investors feel about the economy. It’s not an exact science, since plenty of other factors can move it day to day, but broadly speaking, when the economy looks strong, that yield tends to climb over time. When the outlook gets shaky, it tends to ease. For over 50 years, the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates have moved almost in lockstep (see graph below): The gap between them is called the “spread.” On average, that gap runs about 1.76 percentage points. And that spread impacts your mortgage rate. A wider spread tends to push mortgage rates higher than the treasury yield alone would suggest, while a narrower spread keeps rates closer to the treasury yield. One of the Big Reasons Rates Likely Won’t Drop Dramatically Anytime Soon If you’re hoping mortgage rates will drop a lot, here’s the reality – they probably won’t, at least not anytime soon. One of the big reasons why comes down to that spread between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates. A few years ago, that gap got a lot wider as uncertainty in the economy pushed it as high as 3.19 points in 2023. Now here's the part worth noting – that gap has been narrowing lately. It’s down to about 2.01, just above the long-term average of 1.76 (see graph below): When the gap is wide, there’s more room for rates to fall. But when it’s relatively normal, like it is now, there’s less wiggle room for rates to fall. Why Mortgage Rates Aren’t Higher Right Now Today’s mortgage rate is basically the treasury yield plus the spread. So, when either one moves, your rate moves with it. Here are 3 different rates, all built off today's 10-year treasury yield of 4.68% to show you just how much the spread matters for your bottom line (see graph below): If the spread were still stretched out like it was in 2023, rates would be pushing close to 8% right now. That’s because the spread was over a full point wider than it is today. But now, thanks to the spread narrowing recently, today's rate sits around 6.69%. That’s the middle scenario in that visual. That's a big difference in your monthly payment compared what we could see if the spread was as big as it was 2023. As Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, put it : “Of course, mortgage spreads being better in 2026 is the housing hero story of the year . . .” Now compare that middle bar to the 3rd one. If the spread were sitting at its exact long-term average, rates would be around 6.5%. That's only about a quarter of a point away from where rates actually are today. That means most of the improvement in mortgage rates we should realistically expect from a shrinking spread has already happened. In other words, the same narrowing spread that’s the reason rates aren’t close to 8% today is also a big reason why they’re not likely to fall a lot further. Bottom Line That’s the trade-off with a narrowing spread. Rates may not be where you want them, but they're better than they could've been. If you want help figuring out what that means for your monthly payment , reach out to a local lender
